There were a lot of queries about reduced / subdued rainfall activity in pakistan. So we are briefly explaining the factors responsible for reduced rainfall.
There is a rising trend in central Pacific NINO 3.4 index since 28 May 2020 due to which there is weak tendency of Pacific trade winds. These trade winds are mainly responsible for enhance convection over maritime continent / NW Pacific . Due to enhanced convection over these regions mid tropospheric moist pulses displace subcontinent air mass further NW. The resultant establishment of tropical air mass over upper parts of the country cease entrance of westerlies, so moist currents continue to penetrate without getting cold episodes cut off.
This year there is unexpectedly rising trend in central Pacific and reduced trade winds tendency, allowing westerly waves from mid latitudes. Which is behavior of a typical EL NINO associated with reduced rainfall in subcontinent including Pakistan. We are expecting MJO to move in active phase and monsoon would revive to some extent, however currently we cannot pin point the exact date of revival but we would keep you up to date regarding the progress.
You can openly ask the question about the post because we don’t keep the parameters in backyard.
Fahim Malik Dhurnal
