What’s in store for Monsoon 2022 Pakistan ?

Key features of Monsoon 2022

• – No El-Nino– Negative IOD mainly in second half.-
• Early onset over mainland India: around 25th May (+/- 3 days)
• – Cover whole Pakistan b/w June 20- July 05
• – June, July to score well across the country.
• – Aug, Sep looks good for Eastern & some of the Western belt.
• – 4 months Sub-Division wise forecast (in forecast map)
• – I expect 100-120% of the Long Period Average (Normal to Slight Above Normal).

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Basis of Forecast:

ENSO 3.4 to continue with Weak La-Nina state during first half of season with 60% chance of returning back to Neutral conditions in later half of the season.

IOD is Neutral & likely to continue this way during first half of monsoon with 70% chances of Negative IOD event to develop by late July or in August.

Enhanced rainfall during monsoon will largely depend on how MJO makes its journey across the globe this season. Initial indications are that it could make a strong comeback over Indian Ocean around/after mid June, which will likely bring monsoon dynamics across the country.

. Apart from ENSO and IOD there are many short/medium duration factors and systems too which determines the monsoon.
In my forecast, I have used various dynamical weather models along with rainfall pattern of few years in past, that are best co-related/matched with prevailing ocean/atmospheric conditions, so we can say, it’s a combination of both;

Breakup of Monsoon 2022 forecast (Phase 1 & 2) & Outlook over the Next 4 months :

During June/July, Above normal Rainfall is likely over Northeastern/East-Central & Southern parts of country including #Karachi; Normal to SA above Normal over West-Central & Below normal over North/Northwest parts of the country.

(First phase likely to be 110-130% of the LPA)

During August/September, #Monsoon will get slightly active in parts of North/Northwest Pakistan; hence Near normal Rainfall over  Northern, Northwestern & some parts of Central Pakistan. Normal to slight Above normal in North-Eastern & Below Normal over Southern/South western parts.

Yasar

(Second half Likely to be in 70-90% of the LPA)

Key Parameters Used For Monsoon 2022 Forecast  :

Monsoon has its own dynamics but ENSO, IOD and MJO & Movement of Jetstream have a critical role towards the performance of monsoon season. Amongst all, IOD is a standout factor & I usually took it as a prime measure to evaluate monsoon performance for Pakistan. So if IOD stays Neutral throughout the monsoon season, than there is a likelihood of Normal to Above Normal rains in second half of season also. Need to closely monitor how IOD evolves in coming months.

Conclusion….

Monsoon has a major role to play in the social-cultural unity of country. The monsoon rain replenish reservoirs & groundwater for irrigation, increase farm output, income of rural people & boost demand for consumer goods. With early summer’s & extended heatwaves this year, let’s hope and pray for a good #Monsoon season across the country.

Note:
Will post separate outlook for KarachiMonsoon during early June.

Feedbacks are always welcome 😊

Credits : Yasar